Winter 2001-2002 Middle School Simulation
SCENARIO


Introduction

The Nuts & Bolts of the Simulation

This gaming activity simulates a policy-making environment in which time is an issue and creative problem solving is required. Throughout the simulation, students must act as politicians in a diplomatic fashion as a representative from their assigned country-team. Students are expected to explore policy proposals and communicate ideas over ICONSnet, a website dedicated to the activity. There are ten conferences -- two conferences for each of five issue/subject areas. At the first conference for an issue area, the students will work to make their ideas more clear to other delegates. Also, students will be given the "task" of drafting a plan of action for solving the problem at hand for a particular issue. This will be completed before the start of and/or during the second conference session. The second conference will hopefully consist of a culmination of these plans of action and discussion of their applicability to the problems at hand. 

The following nations will participate in the activity and be simulated by student groups:

Simulation A

Simulation B

Algeria Brazil
China China
Germany France
India Germany
Japan India
Kenya Japan
Nigeria Kenya
Pakistan Nigeria
Russia Pakistan
South Africa Russia
United Kingdom South Africa
United States United States

 

To begin your research on each of these countries you might want to take a look at the information available under Research Library (or, from the Simulations homepage http://www.lib.uconn.edu/~mboyer/ choose Research Library on the left-hand side of the page).  Please note that other countries may be added to the simulation at any time prior to its starting date. You will be notified by SIMCON in the event that additional countries are added to the simulation.

This simulation activity can be thought of as a game with five different parts or sub-games. Each part or sub-game focuses on a particular issue that is described in this scenario. The activity is intended to focus on a few of the main issues in the world today and how these issues are related to each other. The activity is not intended to cover all international issues that exist today. The main sub-games are:

International Conflict and Cooperation
Issue: National Missile Defense Systems

Global Environment
Issue:
Global Climate Change

Human Rights
Issue:
Women's Rights

World Health
Issue:
HIV/AIDS in Africa

International Economics
Issue:
The Global Digital Divide


Although the issue areas are presented as separate parts or sub-games of the activity, remember that the issues are related/interconnected to one another. As an example, issues of AIDS in Africa affect economic development and human rights. It may not be immediately clear how economic development might affect environmental, health and human rights, but consider these possibilities when discussing economic development. An example from your daily life might be how a poor report card (a school issue) may affect your ability to choose what you do in your free time (a personal issue).

Scheduled Conferences

There will be two one-hour conferences scheduled for each of the issue areas to be discussed and negotiated in this simulation in each simulation (A and B). The first conference will serve to identify a country's position on an issue and begin to draft a plan for negotiation. Most of the time between the first and the second conferences will be spent negotiating a plan of action to solve the problems presented by an issue. 

SIMCON (the control center of the activity) will convene and monitor all conferences. All conferences will be held from 3:00 p.m. until 4:00 p.m., with the first conference in Simulation A scheduled for Wednesday, January 9, 2002 and the first conference in Simulation B scheduled for Thursday, January 10, 2002. (see Conference Schedule A and Conference Schedule B). 

All countries will attend eight conferences, covering four issue areas. Even if your country is not invited to a particular conference, you may still discuss the issue on your own with other countries using the message board at ICONSnet. Please note---If your country feels it is vital to your national interest to be included in a particular conference, you may petition (request of) SIMCON to also be included in that conference.

Conference Members

Simulation A

Conferences

Countries Invited

Conflict and Cooperation

China, Germany, India, Japan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.K., U.S.

Global Environment

Algeria, China, Germany, Kenya, India, 
Japan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, U.K., U.S.

Human Rights

Algeria, China, Germany, Kenya, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.K., U.S.

World Health

Algeria, China, Germany, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.K., U.S.

International Economics

Algeria, China, Germany, India, Japan, 
Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, 
South Africa, U.K., U.S.

Simulation B

Conferences

Countries Invited

Conflict and Cooperation

Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.S.

Global Environment

Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.S.

Human Rights

Brazil, China, France, India, Japan, Kenya, 
Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, U.S.

World Health

France, Germany, Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, U.S.

International Economics

Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, 
Japan, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, U.S.

It is common for teams to begin the simulation with the intent to wait for other country-teams to take the lead. This creates an unrealistic simulation of foreign policy and international negotiations, and makes for a slow start to the exercise. Students are urged to send their first policy statements on every issue in which their country is involved on the FIRST day of the simulation. In addition, students are strongly encouraged to have their ideas developed and a plan of action set prior to each conference. Flexibility and knowledge are necessary for country-teams to react quickly to new developments during real-time conferences. Each team should continue to send daily messages on their issues.

Communiqués – (statements to the world community) -- at minimum each country-team will issue five communiqués (diplomatic language for statements) including one from each topic area: national missile defense, global climate change, women's rights, AIDS in Africa, and the global digital divide. Country delegates/players should send well-developed messages to the global community each week of the simulation. These messages are diplomatic statements of your country-team's official position on each of the five issue areas. A good negotiator takes into consideration many factors, including how your proposal will work and how it will be enforced.

Bilateral Negotiations -- in addition to the global communiqués statements, each team must actively engage in bilateral (two-sided) negotiations. Your country-team should send messages to other countries in an attempt to build alliances and receive feedback on your draft proposals. As in the real world, diplomats attempt to win the favor of other nations through bilateral negotiations prior to global conferences.

Hint -- your country has a goal/s as do all the other countries involved. As a result of this fact, you and your fellow country-teammates might want to consider the following questions: what issues are you willing to compromise? What compromises will you be willing to make? What compromises do you and your teammates think the other countries will consider reasonable? Remember that each country has a different perspective and different priorities. It isn't realistic for your country team to believe it will get everything it wants, so these questions are important to think about.

A Successful Simulation -- The key to a successful simulation is the research that a country team does throughout the activity. You will need a thorough understanding of your country’s position on each of the issue areas to effectively reach a "happy medium" between being creative and realistic while negotiating. You need to be ready to think and act like a negotiator from whatever country your team is playing.

The setting for this simulation is Summer 2002. The simulation is set in the future to encourage you to be creative in developing your own proactive policies instead of duplicating real-life events and decisions as they happen.

Issue Areas

This scenario is an introduction to the issues you will be discussing in the simulation. It also gives a very brief overview of some of the interests and policies of other nations in the program. Key terms are hyperlinked to the Glossary of Terms. The scenario is not meant to be the main resource for the development of your policies or in conducting your negotiations. It is a starting point. You now need to research your own nation's history, foreign policy, and relations with the other countries involved in this simulation. After the program begins, real world developments will not affect the ICONS simulation. Your challenge will be to come up with a better agreement than what international negotiators have developed.

HUMAN RIGHTS

ENVIRONMENT

CONFLICT/
COOPERATION

WORLD HEALTH

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

Issue:

Women's Rights

Issue:

Global climate change

 

Issue:

National Missile Defense Systems

Issue:

HIV/AIDS 
in Africa

Issue: 

The Global 
Digital Divide


HUMAN RIGHTS

1998 marked the 50th anniversary of the creation of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), adopted by the United Nations on December 10, 1948. The UDHR guarantees many individual, social, economic, and political rights, including the rights of mothers and children to special care and assistance [Article 25] and to make elementary education mandatory for all children [Article 26]. Later UN efforts, including the International Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the Convention on the Rights of the Child have further expanded the concept of human rights

Almost every nation publicly advocates support for human rights to some degree, and seeks to define, protect, and enforce those rights. One of the major problems in the protection of human rights is the inability of governments to agree on exactly what "human rights" means. The definition of human rights remains a subject of international debate, as proven during the December 1998 World Conference on the Declaration of Human Rights. Highly developed nations, including the U.S., continue to define human rights largely in political terms (free speech, free press, right to vote, etc.). Many developing countries maintain that economic rights to food, shelter, and education are more important than the rights of free speech and political representation.

The debate over the definition of human rights is only part of a much larger struggle over human rights violations. The nations of the world are constantly debating which countries are in violation of the more commonly accepted definition of human rights. The most frequent targets of criticism are China, Cuba, North Korea, Israel, and the military governments of Africa and Latin America. The U.S., in turn, has been labeled a human rights violator for its continued and frequent use of the death penalty. Countries (like individual people) are quick to defend their actions and even quicker to point out violations from other countries.

Even after nations agree on whether another country is violating human rights, it is difficult to determine how to get the violating country to change. The concept of sovereignty prevents one nation from interfering with the internal business of another. Yet the world community has determined some cases of human rights abuse that have required international attention regardless of sovereignty. The reaction of the Chinese government to democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and apartheid in South Africa are two examples of human rights issues in which many nations of the world felt justified in their involvement.

WOMEN'S RIGHTS

Women's Rights--What are they?

Discrimination against women ranges from subtle (physical, emotional, and psychological abuse) to extreme (some custom-based medical practices). While industrialized countries practice more covert forms of discrimination, such as sexual harassment, some developing countries carry out more open forms of oppression, whether legal (some countries have laws denying women voting and inheritance rights or access to schooling) or custom-based. Oftentimes developing countries view statements and actions by the advanced industrialized nations of the West on behalf of women's rights as a form of cultural imperialism

Women's rights have long been considered political, economic, and social issues. Only recently have women's rights been equated with human rights. The global movement for "women's rights as human rights" began with a series of international conferences in the 1990's: in Vienna at the 1993 World Conference on Human Rights, in Cairo at the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994, and again in Copenhagen at the World Summit for Social Development in 1995. The main outcome of the Vienna Conference was the affirmation that human rights are universal and indivisible--meaning that they apply everywhere and for everyone. The Vienna Declaration and Program of Action drafted at the Conference proclaimed that while "national and regional particularities and historical cultural and religious backgrounds need to be considered", it is the "duty and responsibility of States to promote and protect human rights and fundamental freedoms for all, regardless of their political, economic and cultural systems." 

The legal principles of equality and non-discrimination are at the core of all human rights treaties and declarations, and provide the foundation for the protection of women's rights as well. The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) describes this principle as it applies in all aspects of women's lives. Article 1 of the Convention states both that women should not be denied rights equal to those of men by the letter of the law (de jure discrimination), and also that women should not be denied full enjoyment of all their rights by practice (de facto discrimination). Human rights advocates have found it more difficult to persuade governments to eliminate de facto discrimination than for governments to create and enact new laws favoring equality that may or may not be enforced.

Recent Developments

Much of the discussion at the Vienna Conference was reaffirmed at the Fourth World Conference on Women in September 1995 in Beijing, China.  There were seven issues dominant on the agenda at the Beijing conference:

The Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, signed by more than 180 governments at the Beijing Conference, declared as its primary goal the reduction of the gender gap in education by 2005. The Beijing Declaration also repeated that the human rights of women (and female children) are an inalienable and indivisible part of universal human rights.

The main issue for women's rights advocates in the six years since the Beijing Conference has been increasing the overall social status of women throughout the globe, through improving women's educational opportunities, political efficacy, and overall social standing. A United Nations Development Fund study on the status of women throughout the world released just prior to the Beijing Conference revealed that women are the primary victims of poverty and violence, receive lower pay than male counterparts, work longer hours, and face greater social, cultural, and workplace obstacles. In addition, particularly in many developing countries, women have far less access to education than men. According to the recent UN publication The World's Women 2000, created by a UN Special Assembly at the "Beijing + 5 Conference"), 2/3rds of the world's illiterate persons are women, a gap which is expected to continue because of women's unequal schooling opportunities relative to men.

Further Considerations

Many of the global divisions over human rights generally also apply to the rights of women more specifically. The most significant area of disagreement between women's/human rights advocates and some national leaders has been how to achieve women's rights in a world with vastly different social, cultural, ethical, and religious systems and beliefs. For example, in some cultures, women are believed to be inferior, and the birth of a female child is considered undesirable. Various cultural belief systems also hold that women should be treated differently from men even in everyday life and in commonplace activities. This has been carried to its most public extreme in Afghanistan, where the ruling Taliban, which controls the majority of the country, has imposed restrictive gender policies based upon a strict interpretation of Islamic law. Besides the most obvious case of the Taliban, other non-Western societies are frequent targets of international criticism on women's rights issues. The leaders of these countries usually respond that it is their right to preserve their own cultural traditions, or by labeling the criticism hypocritical given the shortcomings in the status of women which still exist in the West.

The International Conference on Human Rights will concentrate on improving the position of women in global society by seeking to resolve the apparent tension between gender equality and cultural diversity. The Conference will focus on developing workable solutions to several problems specific to the area of women's rights. These include addressing the overall status of women in society; eliminating continued restrictions on freedom of movement and access to the political system for women; and reducing the gender gap in education.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS

The history of the modern, globally interdependent economic system has been defined by dramatic increases in the use, effectiveness, and capacity of one of the main factors of production, technology. Beginning with the early innovations of the Industrial Revolution in the 17th and 18th century such as the cotton gin and the steam engine, technology has dramatically changed human life.  This dramatic change continues in the present day, in the development of high-speed interactive telecommunications and information networks powered by the World Wide Web, satellite technology, and the personal computer.

This new level of technological innovation has also greatly increased the number and type of products and services available to humankind. It has enhanced the mobility and linkages between distant people and nations, and created the need for new and innovative financial and regulatory systems. Technology in the 21st century has effectively replaced labor power as the key input in the economic production process, and plays a major role in development and prosperity at the national, regional, and international level.

What is the Digital Divide?

Technology in the 21st century is concerned mainly with the exchange and distribution of information, which explains the widely used terms "information technology" or what organizations like the World Bank call information and communications technology (ICT). Although ICT in advanced industrialized countries is generally used to refer to Internet and computer-based technology, on a global scale ICT also includes satellite links and telegraph, facsimile, and even things taken for granted in the developed world such as telephone access.  Although the term "digital divide" was first used in a domestic setting (comparing Internet access and use among white Americans to that of American minority groups), it is even more applicable on a global scale. While according to the Pew Internet and American Life Project nearly 60% of U.S. homes have computers, and almost half have Internet access, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) reports that 80% of the world's population has still never placed a telephone call (while 33% do not have electricity). While residents of the U.S. and the other advanced industrialized nations of the West make up only about 15% of the world's population, they account for 88% of the world's Internet traffic (according to the UN's International Telecommunications Union (TCU).) 

Advocates of greater global equality in access to technology claim that removing this "digital divide" can have an important impact on global development. They argue that technology can help overcome barriers of social, economic, and geographic isolation while also increasing access to education, health care, information, and political participation. This is considered to be even more true in the case of information technology than with previous forms of technology because of the greater speed, wider reach, and easier portability associated with ICT. While ICT is undoubtedly unique in many ways, it is also clearly an outgrowth of the Industrial Revolution. Those countries and regions with the greatest access to information technology are those countries and regions which also had the greatest access to earlier technological innovations. In some ways, the "digital divide" is simply the latest symptom in a long history of inequality in the global distribution of technological innovation and access. 

Recent Developments

The past several years have witnessed the emergence of a debate over the nature, causes, and consequences of the international digital divide. This debate is unusual in that there are advocates and opponents of ICT in both the developed and developing world. 

Advocates:  The point of view of the advocates is that more developed world funding and support is needed to improve technology and connectivity in the developing world. Advocates have also strongly argued for expanded training and education programs in LDCs, and for the need to develop and disseminate more locally relevant and sensitive technology applications and content.

Opponents:  Opponents of using funding and resources to promote technological expansion in the developing world have asserted that "the poor can't eat computers." Some opponents have also expressed the view that expanding the use of the Internet, mobile telecommunications, personal computers, etc. in LDCs is merely a way in which the developers of that technology (overwhelmingly located in the wealthy nations of the West) can increase profits while continuing to leave most of the world's poor behind.

International discussions over the future of the "digital divide" have taken place in large part at recent meetings of the Group of Eight (G-8), especially at the G-8's 2000 summit in Okinawa, Japan. At that summit, the Digital Opportunity Taskforce ("dot force") was created to examine what steps are needed to bridge the international technological divide. Among the basic principles for action adopted in Okinawa, the "dot force" stressed the need to eliminate "either/or" approaches and emphasized that the development of ICT in LDCs should proceed in combination with other ongoing international development strategies.

The UN's recent Human Development Report 2001 is sub-titled "Making New Technologies Work for Human Development" and focuses on information and communications technology, asserting that ICT can make a major contribution to reducing world poverty. The report concludes that ICT's potential contributions to poverty reduction and human empowerment have been limited for economic reasons. The report concludes that ICT cannot be expanded in the developing world until more investors in the developed world can be convinced to invest in it. The lack of interest on the part of investors and corporations in the developed world is considered one of the largest obstacles to expanding ICT by agencies such as the UN, the World Bank, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) and the International Institute for Communications and Development (IICD) . The position of the major international organizations on the "digital divide" was best summarized in a speech given by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 1999: 

"people lack many things: jobs, shelter, food, health care and drinkable water. Today, being cut off from basic telecommunications services is a hardship almost as acute as these other deprivations, and may indeed reduce the chances of finding remedies to them."

Further Considerations

Conventional wisdom on the relationship of technology to economic development is that people gain greater access to newer and better technology as their income (as a measure of economic development) increases. Advocates of greater global access to information technology (those seeking to drastically reduce the "digital divide") argue the opposite case, that given the special characteristics of today's technology this process can be reversed. They believe that providing the technology first will improve individual and national income and standards of living. The International Economics conference on the "Digital Divide" will focus primarily on the "chicken and egg" question of whether investment in technology is needed to make people more prosperous, or whether greater prosperity is needed first in order to fully utilize technology.

Global Environment

Environmental issues are by definition international, as natural resources make up a "global commons" that is shared by all nations and peoples of the world community. Air pollution caused by a nation affects other nations to varying degrees, as does acid rain, deforestation, and resource depletion. Economic development strategies of different nations have significant impacts not only on a single nation's environment, but also on neighboring environments and the world ecosystem as a whole.

A significant amount of disagreement over how to address environmental issues exists between advanced industrialized countries and the developing world. This difference of opinion centers around the issue of poverty. While poorer countries strive to pursue economic growth and eliminate poverty by utilizing the heavy industrial (and highly polluting) model of the developed world, the richer developed nations seek to promote alternative growth strategies for the developing world that have fewer harmful consequences for the environment. This dispute has often turned into accusations by LDC's that the industrialized countries of the world are practicing economic hegemony and in turn by the industrialized nations that the LDC's wish to enforce environmental "double-standards".

This ongoing dispute is further complicated by the fact that nearly all countries claim international attempts at environmental protection violate their sovereignty. A general lack of agreement and leadership in the environmental arena among nation-states gives non-governmental organizations (NGOs) such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth a great deal of influence.

Global Climate Change--What is it?

Referred to as "global warming" and "the Greenhouse Effect", global climate change is the most significant international environmental issue of the last decade, as well as the most disputed. Disagreement over the cause(s) of climate change, how bad it really is, and consequences of global climate change occurs not only between individual nations and blocs of nations, but between different interest groups within nations. There is also disagreement between environmental NGO's and the international business community over the same issues.

Global climate change refers to a change in the average temperature of the earth's climate due to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a team of the world's foremost climate change scientists, has confirmed that such a process is underway. However, there remain conflicting scientific opinions on these issues.  Significant climate change poses serious dangers worldwide, such as coastal flooding, frequent and intense heat waves, more extreme droughts, a rise in the number of severe storms, profound changes to biodiversity, and disruptions in crop production and growing seasons. These outcomes would especially impact the island nations of the world, as well as dry countries and countries with a significant proportion of their population and infrastructure (roads, buildings, and transportation systems) located in coastal floodplains.

Some level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is natural and beneficial, as they reduce the rate at which the planet's heat is lost by radiating out into space. But when pollution pushes the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere too high, too much heat is trapped, and the world gets hotter. The most important greenhouse pollutant is carbon dioxide, which is produced from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Deforestation also plays a role as trees (which soak up carbon dioxide in photosynthesis) disappear and those that are burned add additional carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Global concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased by about 30 percent during the last century, spurred initially by the increase in fossil fuel burning at the onset of the Industrial Revolution. Since it takes decades to centuries for natural processes to remove excess amounts from the air, carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere.

Recent Developments

In June, 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNCED, also known as the Rio Earth Summit) brought together a record number of world leaders to address the world's environmental problems, among them global climate change. One significant outcome of the Rio Earth Summit was the Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Convention's objective is to cut back on climate change caused by human activities. As a preliminary step it called upon the industrialized countries of the world to voluntarily return their emissions (production) of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000.

In March/April 1995, at the First Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP-1) in Berlin, Germany, 120 countries agreed to hold further talks on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This was determined after reviewing the progress made toward the goals of the Rio Earth Summit and concluding that the voluntary approach had been unsuccessful. This agreement to pursue further talks resulted in the Berlin Mandate, which specifically called upon the industrialized nations to set stronger, more specific reduction targets for themselves.

In December of 1997, the Third Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP-3) was held in Kyoto, Japan. On December 11, 1997, negotiators reached a compromise treaty, with 38 industrialized countries agreeing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to below 1990 levels by 2012. The United States agreed to 7 percent reductions, the European Union to 8 percent, and Japan to 6 percent, with the overall cut for all 38 countries around 5 percent.

Negotiators met again in November 1998 in Buenos Aires, Argentina at the Fourth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change (COP-4) to expand the details of the Kyoto Protocol. The final two-year "Buenos Aires Plan of Action" includes a firm deadline for countries to make sure that they are complying with the treaty's goals. Countries must also decide the rules governing emissions trading and the Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) (a means of bringing in money for cleaner energy projects in developing countries). During the Buenos Aires conference, the United States officially signed the Kyoto protocol, becoming the 60th country to do so, at the same time stating that it would be unable to meet its 7 percent reduction goal without the benefit of emissions trading

Since the Buenos Aires Conference, there have been three additional COPs. These Conferences have become increasingly frustrating to national delegations, as the deadlines to implement reductions agreed upon at Kyoto approached without one widely acceptable strategy emerging. For example, the fifth Conference of the Parties (COP-5) held in Bonn, Germany in 1999 concluded with most major decisions postponed--despite the calls of German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for ratification of the Protocol so it can take effect by 2002. Most observers have concluded that COP-5 accomplished little because of the continuing dispute between the U.S. and the EU over limits on the use of mechanisms such as emissions trading credits and Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) (the U.S. opposes such limits, while the EU supports them). 

Frustration over these same issues culminated at COP-6 (held at the Hague in November 2000). The division between the U.S. and the EU worsened, with the U.S. moving closer toward a rejection of the overall principles of the Kyoto accord. While the original goal of the conference was to promote the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol by 2002, by the end of the two weeks the Parties had failed to reach any consensus on this goal. The decision was reached to adjourn the Conference and reconvene it as COP-6 Part II in July 2001, with many close to the negotiations predicting that the Kyoto Protocol was "dead."

A major breakthrough was achieved at COP-6 Part II, as, after more than 24 hours of consecutive negotiations, a compromise was struck between the EU and the majority of the Umbrella Group (though not the U.S.). This compromise dealt with the questions of how to enforce the provisions of the Kyoto agreement, the use of emissions credits for protecting forests, the acceptability of emissions trading, and the promotion of emissions reduction in LDCs (who remain outside the treaty).  While the compromise kept the original reduction targets intact, it also postponed working out the details for full implementation to future rounds of negotiations. 

The Kyoto protocol will become international law when at least 55 countries have signed and also ratified (approved) the agreement. As of July 2001, 84 countries have signed and 37 countries ratified the Protocol (see http://www.unfccc.de/resource/convkp.html for the most recent list). However, threatening the future of both the Kyoto Accord and other attempts at reducing global carbon emissions is the opposition of the United States, which remains the world's largest per-capita contributor of greenhouse gases.

Further Considerations

There are four key negotiating blocs (or groups) that have emerged on the issue of global climate change: 

The upcoming Global Environment Conference should follow up on the outstanding issues related to the Kyoto treaty, namely:

Country teams participating in the Global Environment Conference should keep in mind the difficulty of balancing economic growth and environmental protection. This balance is of most concern in developing nations, and addressing environment/development conflicts in LDCs during the negotiations is very important. However, this same balancing of priorities is also relevant in the industrialized world, as much of the debate between the EU and the U.S. suggests.

CONFLICT/COOPERATION

Since the first Nazi V2 rockets fell on London during World War II, many countries have sought to develop a defense against missile attack. Most recently it has been the United States who has most vigorously pursued the creation of a ballistic missile defense (BMD). While the missile threat has changed dramatically from its peak during the Cold War, many top political leaders in the U.S., including President George W. Bush, have argued that potential new threats are emerging which would be best met by a national missile defense system.

National Missile Defense--What is it?

National Missile Defense (NMD) is a system to detect, intercept and destroy ballistic missiles before they hit their targets.  President Bush cites two main types of threat in justifying such a system: "the world's least-responsible states," such as Iraq and North Korea; and "accidental missile launches" by nuclear powers such as Russia and China. The latest version of NMD would incorporate land-based, ship-based and airborne radar and missile systems designed to destroy hostile missiles. As the system is expected to work, radars would be used to detect the launch of hostile missiles, at which time interceptor missiles are used to intercept and destroy them, either soon after the hostile missile is launched or later in its flight. According to President Bush, NMD could be used to "protect our (American) friends and allies and deployed forces overseas", although it is not yet clear how this additional goal would be included in an NMD system.

Experts on missile defense systems differ greatly over the feasibility of, as well as need for, a NMD system. Supporters such as the Heritage Foundation say missile defense is not only workable but necessary. Skeptics such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reply: "There is not now and never has been an effective national missile defense system. . . . It is highly unlikely that any system can be shown to be militarily effective during the next eight years."  A 1998 commission (chaired by now Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld) determined that the threat to the U.S. and its allies from hostile nations seeking to obtain and arm ballistic missiles with biological or nuclear payloads is great. On the other hand, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has argued that the U.S. is more likely to be attacked with other weapons of mass destruction (including chemical and biological weapons) delivered by means other than missiles. 

Complicating this ongoing debate over national missile defense is the tragic September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Opponents of NMD have argued that this tragedy demonstrates that the greatest threats to security will not be delivered by long-range ballistic missiles, but by cheaper and more accurate means that can only be stopped with improvements in intelligence and law enforcement.  Supporters of NMD counter that U.S. national security has never been in greater jeopardy, further proving the need for NMD (as well as other methods of "homeland defense".)

Recent Developments

The collapse of the Soviet Union, the resulting decline in the threat of massive nuclear exchange, and the emergence of new types of threats and crises has led to a change in priorities with respect to NMD. Under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton, the focus began to shift to the threat from missiles with shorter ranges. In 1993, President Clinton and Secretary of Defense Les Aspin responded to this new threat, renaming Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative Organization the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO), and changing its focus from nationwide to theater (regional) missile defense. They argued that not only was the short-range missile threat far more developed, but the goal of effective defense was more likely to be achieved.

The 1998 Rumsfeld report as well as growing Congressional support for NMD persuaded the Clinton Administration to move toward deployment of missile defense, although there were doubts about the high level of technical risk in the program. In the 2000 federal budget the Clinton Administration added $6.6 billion to create a $10.5 billion NMD program over the next five years. The new George W. Bush Administration has embraced the NMD program and has expressed an interest in further expanding it. On May 1, 2001, he outlined his Administration’s approach to missile defense, emphasizing that his Administration was committed to the development of missile defenses to a far greater extent that was planned by the Clinton Administration.

Secretary of State Colin Powell, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, and the President have all stressed the U.S. commitment to developing a major NMD system during meetings with American allies in Europe. The Bush Administration plans to pursue defenses based on land, at sea, and in space and to seek multiple intercept capabilities, and has requested $8.3 billion dollars for research and development of these capabilities in FY2002.   

Further Considerations

The development of a U.S. national missile defense system raises a number of questions with respect to U.S.-Russian, U.S.-Chinese, and U.S.-European relations. Since the emergence of a missile threat to the United States in the late 1950s, American policymakers have relied on a mix of deterrence, arms control agreements, and diplomacy in formulating a strategic nuclear policy, any or all of which could be significantly affected by the deployment of NMD. 

Deterrence

The United States and Russia still maintain large arsenals of nuclear weapons. However, with the end of the Cold War, the basis and structure of international security have significantly changed. The massive military forces built up by both sides have declined, and the two countries have sought to work together on security issues. Despite this, a stable balance has not emerged, and the two countries have struggled to break away from nuclear-based strategies of defense.

Supporters of deterrence during the Cold War were mostly opposed to national missile defenses, believing that they would simply encourage the development of even greater offensive force to overcome the defenses. Both the U.S. and the USSR recognized at the time that a NMD system could not provide 100% security in the event of a massive nuclear strike because some missiles would always get through to their targets. In recent months President Bush has called on Russia to join the United States in developing a new framework for international security that would replace the Cold War idea of deterrence through massive retaliation with a new model that includes both offensive and defensive capabilities. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has opposed Bush's NMD plans. Putin has argued that if NMD were implemented by the U.S., Russia would be forced to stop planned reductions in its strategic nuclear arsenal.  Russia's failing economy would make such a decision to return to nuclear escalation and deterrence extremely costly for Russian society. The documented lack of nuclear safeguards and rampant corruption in the Russian government would make such a buildup extremely dangerous as well.

Arms Control Agreements

In the midst of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union ratified a treaty in which they agreed not to try to defend their entire territory against missile attack. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) (signed in 1972) allows each country to build two sites (later reduced to one) to protect limited areas from nuclear attack. As the Treaty states, such a site may not be used as a nationwide missile defense system or become the basis for developing one. The ABM Treaty was an important step in the nuclear age, and legally prevented the development of a major anti-ballistic missile defense.  

To date President Bush has offered no clear statement that the U.S. is prepared to withdraw from the ABM Treaty. However, both he and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld have indicated that they consider the treaty to be out of date and would prefer the United States move past it and develop missile defense technologies. Critics of this position have argued that violation or abrogation of the ABM Treaty could have serious implications for the success of other related nuclear arms control and reduction strategies.

The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) process has played a major part in reducing the strategic nuclear arsenals built up in the U.S. and Russia during the Cold War. These long-range arsenals peaked in the late 1980s at around 24,000 warheads. Under START I, which is still being implemented, U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces must drop to 6,000 warheads or less each. In 1996, the U.S. Senate approved ratification of the next round of reductions, START II. In April 2000, the Russian Duma followed suit. Once START II enters into force, long-range arsenals are supposed to drop to 3,000-3,500 deployed warheads for each country.  

START II cannot take effect until the U.S. Senate approves a protocol to START II, as well as three agreements to update the ABM Treaty.  The linkage of the START process to the ABM Treaty, the delay in taking action on START II, and the breakdown of START III are all important factors which are likely to be impacted by further development and implementation of a U.S. missile defense program.

Critics have also argued that a U.S. NMD program could threaten efforts at nuclear non-proliferation such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Under the NPT, the five declared nuclear-weapon states--China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States--agreed to pursue nuclear disarmament. In return, all other Treaty members (a group which includes every country in the world except India, Pakistan, Israel and Cuba) agreed to renounce nuclear weapons entirely.

In 1995, the NPT was made permanent when Treaty members agreed to three binding commitments: a permanent Treaty; a strengthened review process for the Treaty; and a set of Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament. In April and May of 2000, at the first NPT Review Conference, a significant number of parties to the Treaty raised concerns about the U.S. plans for national missile defense and issued support for the ABM Treaty. A serious breakdown was avoided, however, when the five nuclear powers--the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France--agreed on a statement that called for the "preserving and strengthening" the ABM Treaty. This wording allowed the U.S. to maintain that modifying the Treaty would strengthen it, while others could continue to oppose any changes. 

Diplomacy

If the U.S. and Russia reach agreement leading to further cuts in their nuclear arsenals, one of the more difficult issues raised by U.S. missile defense deployment would be resolved. However, there would remain significant sources for backlash against missile defense among potential rivals such as China and traditional U.S. allies such as Britain, France and Germany.

During the Cold War, China was not a significant player in the nuclear arms race. While the USSR and the United States (as well as the United Kingdom and France) developed substantial arsenals of multi-warhead, long-range missiles, China only kept a relatively small force of 20 or so long-range, single-warhead missiles empty of fuel and hours away from launching. China's concern over the proposed American missile defense system stems from the fact that the system would be so extensive that China's current nuclear arsenal would be inconsequential. Given that China's original motivation for developing a nuclear weapons program was to prevent nuclear domination by Russia or the U.S., this concern could lead to a Chinese decision to significantly increase its nuclear arsenal. A larger Chinese arsenal would not only increase the threat to the United States, it could have significant impacts on nuclear proliferation in Asia as well. India and/or Pakistan could respond by increasing their arsenals, while Japan and South Korea might also feel pressure to react. 

America's European allies have also expressed objections to U.S. proposals for a national missile defense system. First and foremost, they fear the system could ignite a new arms race and increase tensions with Russia. Second, European critics think U.S. missile defense relies on technology that is far too elaborate to respond to what they feel is an unlikely threat. France and Germany in particular have voiced concerns that a unilateral U.S. missile defense system could lead to a more confrontational U.S. security policy.  British officials have suggested that any missile defense should be extended to protect the United Kingdom if not Europe as a whole. British opinion is particularly relevant because the U.S. plans to upgrade radars based in Great Britain for the national missile defense system. 

The Bush Administration has taken an active role in consulting with U.S. allies about NMD and in ensuring the allies that the United States would include them in its missile defense efforts. For example, President Bush spoke with European and NATO leaders prior to his May 1, 2001 speech on missile defense, and he sent several delegations to Europe and Asia after the speech to consult with the allies about missile defenses. However, these consultations did not win widespread support for the Administration’s position. Officials in many NATO nations have argued that the Administration’s representatives offered few details of the U.S. plans and failed to answer questions about the new strategic framework envisioned by the Administration. 

Negotiators considered a solution to the complex problem of a U.S.-led national missile defense system should strive to balance the security concerns of the U.S. and some of its allies with the many questions raised by critics of such a program. Some questions to consider include:

WORLD HEALTH

Among the most significant of diseases affecting the developing world in terms of political, social, and economic impact is HIV/AIDS. The devastation brought about by HIV/AIDS is particularly severe in Africa, a continent which has now buried approximately 75% of the over 20 million people who have died from AIDS and AIDS-related complications worldwide since 1981.  Almost 4 million new cases of AIDS infections were reported in Africa in the year 2000 alone. Over 33 million people are living with HIV/AIDS worldwide; sub-Saharan Africa (the southern two-thirds of the African continent, south of the Sahara desert) is the most affected region. In some countries in southern Africa, up to one in four adults are now living with HIV/AIDS. Increasingly HIV/AIDS is becoming a problem during pregnancy and childbirth. In Zimbabwe, for example, 20%-50% of pregnant women in some areas are infected with HIV and risk infecting their children. In Botswana life expectancy at birth has fallen from 70 to almost 50 years. These staggering figures, however, provide only an introduction to the international public health crisis of AIDS in Africa.

What is HIV/AIDS?

HIV is a virus--the Human Immunodeficiency Virus. Illnesses caused by a virus cannot be cured by antibiotics. People who have a less serious virus (a cold, for example) usually get better after a few days or weeks because the white blood cells of the immune system--which are responsible for fighting diseases--successfully overcomes them. When a person is infected with HIV (that is, when a person is "HIV positive"), the immune system cannot make enough of the proper antibodies in order to defeat the virus. Many people do not feel ill at all when they are first infected with HIV, and may not feel the symptoms of the virus for a long time. This is because HIV acts by gradually destroying the immune system of the infected person. After about 5 to 10 years (although much earlier in some cases) the immune system becomes so weak and deficient that it cannot fight off infections. At this stage, complications such as intense diarrhoea, fever, pneumonia, and liver failure often set in as HIV develops into full blown AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome).

The process of acquiring the virus itself is widely agreed upon by scientists, but nevertheless has been the subject of a great deal of misinformation around the world. HIV is found in bodily fluids such as blood, semen, vaginal fluids and breastmilk. It is transmitted only in very specific ways, such as through sexual intercourse, in infected blood (for example through blood transfusions or in the use of contaminated needles and syringes), or from an infected mother to her baby. Although the process of transmitting HIV is well established scientifically, myths about transmission persist in both the developed world and in lesser developed regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, and weaken efforts to control the spread of the disease.

AIDS in Africa--Recent Developments

According to the WHO, over two-thirds of all the people now living with HIV in the world--nearly 21 million men, women and children--live in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS in Africa has now reached pandemic proportions, effecting every aspect of public life. The spread of AIDS in Africa has occurred in a much different fashion than did the AIDS epidemic in other parts of the world. In the developed world, the disease was brought under control through intensive education, vigorous political action and expensive drug therapy and has been limited to specific high-risk groups. In Africa, on the other hand, the disease has spread at a frightening pace due to shortcomings in all three areas--education, political action, and drug treatment. 

Because of the political, cultural, economic, and moral dimensions of the crisis, AIDS in Africa has been high on the international health agenda for several years, and has begun receiving a significant amount of attention in Western political and media circles. As far back as 1987, community-based responses to AIDS began receiving attention (Uganda's The AIDS Support Organization was the first and remains a role model for similar activities throughout Africa). At the same time the WHO established its Special Program on AIDS, later to evolve into the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) in 1996. While the Ugandan initiative was for the most part unique to that country until only recently, the early activity by the WHO focused a tremendous amount of discussion and study about the problem of AIDS in Africa by global organizations such as the UN, WHO, the World Bank, the Organization for African Unity (OAU), and the African Development Forum throughout the 1990's.

One recent high-profile initiative is the International Partnership Against AIDS in Africa, or "the Africa Partnership." This coalition is made up of most of the governments of Africa as well as the United Nations, major international aid donors, and private sector interests and has a broad mission:  "to reduce the number of new HIV infections in Africa, to promote better care for those already suffering from HIV, and to mobilize society to halt the advance of AIDS." It is referred to as a partnership mainly because it seeks to identify, on a country-by-country basis throughout Africa, those plans and strategies that have had some level of success. This approach has been structured to avoid the shortcomings of the more traditional "top-down" approaches to international health and development. However, it still faces the major challenge of mobilizing local support and overcoming political and cultural barriers to improved AIDS education and treatment.

The Third Conference of African National Human Rights Institutions held in Lome, Togo in March 2001 approved the Lome Declaration which linked the issue of HIV-AIDS in Africa to human rights on a broader scale. The Lome Declaration, passed on to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, urged African nations to: (a) ensure that their laws, policies, and practices respect human rights in the context of those affected by HIV/AIDS; (b) promote more effective programs for AIDS prevention; and (c) improve the quality and access to care and medication. 

In April 2001, the OAU convened a special African Summit on HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and other related Infectious Diseases in Abuja, Nigeria.  In response to worldwide criticisms of a perceived lack of African political leadership, this summit issued one of the most strongly worded statements of African commitment to the fight against AIDS on record. The Abuja Declaration states that AIDS is a "State of Emergency on the [African] Continent." In addition to  expressing support for international efforts to control AIDS, the Declaration issued a commitment of personal responsibility and leadership aimed at promoting awareness of the impact of AIDS on women and children and a greater respect for human rights for those people living with AIDS.

In June 2001, the UN General Assembly convened a Special Session on HIV/AIDS which concluded with the approval of a Declaration of Commitment in which 189 member states framed a national, regional, and international leadership strategy to combat what they termed a "global emergency."  The UN also urged the support of regional organizations and initiatives to combat HIV/AIDS--especially with respect to Africa--and pledged greater involvement globally by the UN and other international organizations to develop innovative, public-private partnerships and multi-sectoral approaches. The Declaration concluded that these approaches should be structured to include people living with AIDS and vulnerable groups in order to promote awareness and information about the disease. 

The continued emphasis placed on information and coordination by international organizations like the UN, however, has been criticized by some as a symbol of bureaucratic inertia while the effects of the disease in Africa worsen. This is the source of much tension and debate between the developing world and public health and AIDS advocates on the one hand, and the developed world and international organizations on the other.

Further Considerations

Unlike the rest of the world, HIV in sub-Saharan Africa has mostly spread through sexual contact between men and women, meaning that women are more heavily affected in Africa than in the rest of the world (about 4/5ths of the world's women infected with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa). An even higher proportion of the children living with HIV in the world are in Africa - an estimated 90%. There are a variety of reasons why HIV/AIDS impacts women and children so dramatically in Africa. First, more women of childbearing age are HIV-infected in Africa than elsewhere. Secondly, African women have more children on average than those in other continents, so one infected woman may pass the virus on to a higher than average number of children. Thirdly, nearly all children in Africa are breastfed (this is thought to account for between a third and half of all HIV transmission from mother to child). Finally, new drugs which help reduce transmission from mother to child before and around childbirth are generally difficult to obtain if available at all.

The plight of AIDS in Africa has been undoubtedly been worsened by the persistence of highly patriarchal belief systems and cultures that promote promiscuity as well as false information about the disease. The role of men in the transmission of AIDS in Africa has been a key subject of concern for UNAIDS' two-year World AIDS Campaign in 2000-2001, "Men Make a Difference." In addition, the inability and in some cases unwillingness of some African political leaders to publicly acknowledge the extent and causes of the disease has indirectly lent support to the patriarchal and promiscuous customs and practices that promote its spread. The lack of political leadership on the AIDS issue--as recently as April 2000, South African President Thabo Mbeki is on record denying that AIDS is directly caused by HIV--has lent an air of confusion, stigma, and denial to the disease. This sense of denial in turn has limited information about what the disease is and how to avoid contracting it to a minimum and led to the shunning of those who suffer from it. In many countries the social pressure to practice this denial has led doctors to misdiagnose what really is AIDS, or to falsely list the cause of death as something other than AIDS.

The rampant spread of AIDS in Africa has long been a subject of concern to international health and aid agencies, and in recent years has been prominently featured in major Western media outlets such as Time magazine, The New York Times, CNN, the BBC, and the television newsmagazine 60 Minutes. Despite this increased awareness of the horrible suffering and economic, social, and political dislocation that AIDS has caused in Africa, it remains in some ways a self-contained crisis that does not directly impact the daily lives of people of the developed world.  Or does it?  AIDS in Africa--often cited as the world's foremost public health crisis--may also be the leading test of international morality.  Because of Africa's relative political and economic marginalization, the continent is often overlooked by Western leaders and citizens alike, with some arguing that Africa's problems are for Africans to deal with.  Will this pattern continue with respect to the AIDS crisis?

Negotiators seeking to deal with the problem of AIDS in Africa should consider what strategies might work best for dealing with the problems of education and culturally driven stigmas, as well as the impacts that poverty and underdevelopment play in limiting access to health care and drug treatment. Should the disease be combated separately, or as part of an overall development strategy to reduce all the problems of poverty? Also, the role that political leadership in both Africa and the West might play in alleviating the crisis should be analyzed.