Midterm Exam - POLS 220

Spring 2006

Dr. Mark A. Boyer

Read the articles below. You should approach the articles as a case to analyze and then take on the particular perspective of the country (German, Japan, India or Brazil) you are representing in the simulation. In other words, assume that you are a policy-maker for your assigned nation-state and you must formulate the strategy and tactics for dealing with the problem(s) outlined in the articles. In answering the following questions, I am not assuming that you have any outside knowledge of the issues beyond what is laid out in the article, though you are free to discuss outside information in your group prep sessions.

Until Monday 3/20, you are free to work with your classmates in developing answers to the questions below. When you arrive in class on Monday, you should be prepared to write an analysis of the article. You may not use any notes or books during the in-class time you have to write. You should try to answer the following questions, though not necessarily in the order listed below.  Be Creative!  Remember, even though this article centers on a topic that may be outside your country's direct purview, you need to reason through how should your country should or could respond, be involved in the decisions made, or cope with the general policy challenges at the heart of the article.

So think about the following questions as at least starting points for your analysis. Please also remember that the best answers will be ones that are able to integrate conceptual material from the lectures and books with the "data" in the article.

· Who are the actors in the article?

· What issues are at the root of the article? Which are the primary issues? What are the secondary issues? Are the primary issues primary to all the actors?

· What are the stakes or interests that each actor has in the set of issues discussed in the article?

· Are any of the actors more intensely involved than the other actors? What effect, if any, does this have on the possibilities for resolution of the problem?

· From your country team's perspective, what options do you have in dealing with the issues? Is your country's policy central to the outcome of the conflict? Why or why not? If not, how can you continue to influence the outcome?

Lastly, provide a concluding section discussing how this problem fits (or does not) with your country-team’s overall foreign policy goals.

 ARTICLES

Iran rules out conditions in Russia plan
Tehran insists it must be allowed to enrich uranium in Iran

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) 3/13/06 -- Iran will not consider a proposal by Moscow to enrich uranium on Russian soil and ship it to Tehran if it means the country must cease all enrichment activity on its own soil, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Sunday.

Iran has rejected a similar proposal in the past, and the latest rejection showed mounting international pressure has not changed the government's stance.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi told journalist Shirzad Bozorgmehr that his country would like to resolve its dispute with the international community "through dialogue" but insisted that Iran must continue its own nuclear research -- including enrichment on at least a small scale.

He said Iran would "not give in to international pressure to give up our rights to nuclear research."

The Russian proposal would require Iran to stop all enrichment activity, but Asefi said talks could continue to resolve the impasse.

Earlier, Asefi was quoted by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) saying that "the situation has changed."

"We should wait and see how developments will go on among different states, including the five permanent members of the United Nations Security-Council," Asefi was quoted as saying by the state-run Islamic Republic news agency.

"Undoubtedly, Iran will not renounce its rights."

He also said "under no possibilities" will the Iranian Parliament ratify the additional protocol to the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Asefi made those remarks to reporters at a conference dubbed "Energy and Security: Asian Vision."

The thorny issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions was referred to the U.N. Security Council this week after International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei presented a report critical of Iran's nuclear programs to his agency's board of governors in Vienna.

After ElBaradei presented his report, the United States called for immediate action by the Security Council, which could impose sanctions against Tehran.

The permanent members of the Council -- the United States, China, France, Britain and Russia -- began talks Friday afternoon aimed at coming up with a text for a response to the Iran nuclear crisis. The full Council could begin debate on the issue next week.

In his comments Sunday, Asefi blasted the decision of the IAEA to send the matter to the Security Council, calling it "unacceptable."

Iran has said its nuclear activities are for civilian purposes -- the development of nuclear energy. But U.S. and other Western leaders have expressed concerns that Tehran is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

The IAEA chief's report raised questions about Tehran's claim that its pursuit of nuclear technology is solely for peaceful purposes.

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Bush: Iran grave security threat
Tehran hardline cleric calls EU 'a puppet of U.S. policies'

WASHINGTON 3/10/06 -- U.S. President George W. Bush has called Iran an issue of "grave national security concern" but said he wanted a diplomatic solution to the Islamic republic's nuclear ambitions.

His comments on Friday came as a hardline Iranian cleric denounced the European Union as a puppet of Washington, and as the EU's foreign policy raised the prospect of eventual sanctions against Tehran.

The EU's Javier Solana and Iran's Ahmad Khatami made their remarks as diplomats from the world's key powers were hammering out an expected U.N. statement on Iran's nuclear program.

Bush said American concerns stemmed from Iran's stated intention to destroy Israel and Washington's fear that Tehran wants to build nuclear bombs -- which the Iranians deny.

"You begin to see an issue of grave national security concern," Reuters reported Bush as telling a newspaper group.

"Therefore it's very important for the United States to continue to work with others to solve these issues diplomatically, deal with these threats today," he said.

In an interview published Friday in the Austrian daily Der Standard, Solana said sanctions against Tehran may be necessary.

"At a later stage, sanctions of some kind can't be excluded. Let's wait and see what the Security Council does," he was quoted as saying.

"We are only at the beginning. I don't exclude sanctions but it depends on the type of sanctions. We certainly don't want to target the Iranian people," Solana said.

It was Solana's first explicit mention of economic measures against Iran, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, Khatami told Friday worshippers in Tehran the European Union was just a puppet of Washington.

"The issue showed that the EU, despite its gesture of independence, is intimidated," Reuters quoted him as saying in a sermon broadcast live on state radio. "It is a puppet of U.S. policies."

Khatami also accused Bush of using the nuclear issue as part of an effort to topple Iran's government.

"Bush talks of regime change or change of its behavior, which is the same. It means no Islamic regime and the rest is just excuses," he said.

"Today the problem is nuclear energy. As soon as it is over, the problem of human rights will come up and right after that will be the issue of fighting terrorism."

Khatami's comments echoed those of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who said Thursday that Washington's focus on Iran's nuclear issue was a "pretext" for its "psychological war" on the country and its Islamic system of government.

"On different occasions over the past 27 years, whenever the U.S. pretext lost its effect for any reason, immediately it brought up another one, given its belief that continued psychological war with the Iranian nation is the best way to confront the Islamic system," Khamenei said, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.

On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) sent a report on Iran to the U.N. Security Council, and diplomats from the council's five permanent members met briefly in New York to discuss the issue. (Full story)

They were expected to meet again Friday behind closed doors before the full 15-nation council tackles the issue next week.

The council is expected to issue a statement urging Iran to comply with resolutions by the IAEA, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog.

But there are differences among the council's veto-wielding permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- over how the statement should read.

'Test for the council'
"We're going to press for as vigorous a response in the council as we can get, and hope that gets the Iranians' attention," John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said Thursday.

"This is a test for the council. If the Iranians do not back off from their continued aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons, we'll have to make a decision of what the next step will be."

However, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said his country wanted a political solution, not to punish Iran.

"Our goal is political, not at all punitive," he told RTL radio when asked if France backed U.S. pressure for sanctions, The Associated Press reported.

Douste-Blazy urged Iran to return to "reason."

"The hand is extended. Negotiations are possible," AP quoted him as saying. "Iran must understand that it has no choice. It has the right to civilian nuclear energy, it does not have the right to something else."

British Prime Minister Tony Blair also urged Tehran to abide by its obligations, saying the UK had no quarrel with the Iranian people.

"I hope that the Iranian people in particular realize that we have no quarrel with them and no desire to stop them having and indeed their country having the same rights as everybody else," AP quoted Blair as saying.

"With those rights come certain duties and obligations and it is important to abide by them," he added.

In comments released Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called for expanded talks to resolve differences over how to proceed with the Iran nuclear issue.

Lavrov said the talks should extend beyond the permanent council members to include Germany -- which along with France and Britain has been negotiating with Iran -- and the IAEA.

Russia and China, which have major commercial interests in Iran, are opposed to sanctions.

Meanwhile, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said Moscow's proposal for Iran to enrich uranium in Russia was "still on the table."

"Iran should take this solution," she told reporters in Salzburg. Iran insists on doing some enrichment at home.

"It is clear that we can still reach a diplomatic solution. ... We don't want to isolate Iran, and Iran should also not isolate Iran," she said.

U.S. and other Western officials believe Iran's program is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Iran says it is for civilian purposes only.